According to the National Road Development and Reform Commission and other five ministries and commissions issued "China's phase-out of incandescent lights road map (draft)" (hereinafter referred to as "road map"), since November 14, 2011, China began to implement the incandescent lamp phase-out plan, and the final The elimination time is September 30, 2016. That is to say, starting from October 1, 2016, China will ban sales and the “China Phased Elimination of Incandescent Lights Roadmap (Consultation Draft) issued by the five ministries and commissions such as the National Development and Reform Commission. (hereinafter referred to as "Road Map"), since November 14, 2011, China began to implement the incandescent lamp elimination plan, and the final elimination time point is September 30, 2016, that is, since October 1, 2016 Since then, China will ban the sale and import of ordinary lighting incandescent lamps of 15 watts or more. With the approach of the elimination of the "road map", the LED sector has risen sharply in recent days, and the exit of incandescent lamps will undoubtedly bring more market space for LED companies. The invention of incandescent lamps has a history of 137 years. It is understood that incandescent lamps have been phased out in many countries due to low light efficiency. At the beginning of 2007, the Australian government first issued legislation to completely eliminate incandescent lamps. Since then, more than ten countries and regions such as Canada, Japan, the United States, the European Union, South Korea and Taiwan have successively released the incandescent lamp elimination plan. Since China introduced the ban on whitening in 2011, incandescent lamps have gradually withdrawn from the market. For now, incandescent lamps have rarely been used in China. Most households and enterprises have eliminated incandescent lamps, and even in the lighting market. Look for their shadow. According to the phase-out plan of the “Road Map†issued by China, since 2011, the regulations prohibiting the sale and import of incandescent lamps have gradually slowed from 100 watts to 60 watts and then to 15 watts today. Many investors will ban this. Interpreted as a complete delisting of incandescent lamps. In fact, the LED concept has been hyped up every time the ban has been reached since the release of the Road Map. Although incandescent lamps are indeed gradually withdrawing from the market, whether incandescent lamps can be completely delisted in the end, this point seems to many industry insiders still need the joint efforts of the government and enterprises, rather than as simple as investors interpret. Nowadays, the elimination of incandescent lamps in the national policy is only in terms of general lighting. In some special lighting and agricultural lighting, there is no way to completely replace incandescent lamps. Sun Shuang, Beijing Institute of Electric Light Sources, said in an interview with the author. According to the author, many small light bulbs on some household appliances cannot replace incandescent lamps with LED lamps, such as range hoods. This shows that the complete delisting of incandescent lamps still takes a certain amount of time. The plan of this Road Map has no way to completely eliminate the incandescent lamps from the market. It will take some time for investors to wait and see. The author visited a number of hardware stores in Beijing. During the visit, I found that many stores have no incandescent lamps. More are LED lights and energy-saving lamps. I heard that incandescent lamps are not allowed to be sold after October, so they have not been purchased. Almost no one now buys incandescent lamps, LED lights and energy-saving lamps are very good to sell. Mr. Wang from the hardware store said. According to the data, in the first half of 2016, the cumulative output of incandescent bulbs nationwide reached 2.012 billion, but according to the “road mapâ€, most of the incandescent lamps will face exit after October 2016, indicating that the lighting industry will usher in A market of up to 100 billion, which is also an opportunity for LED lighting. Although the elimination of incandescent lamps has made the LED industry promising, the LED industry is still an overcapacity industry, because since the 2011 Roadmap, the LED industry has launched a wave of investment storms, resulting in overcapacity today. . At present, the penetration rate of LED lamps in the domestic lighting market exceeds 30%, while incandescent lamps are less than 5%. This has not formed a competitive situation. However, due to overcapacity, LED lighting products are oversupply, and the profits of many LED companies are shrinking year by year. Taking Jufei Optoelectronics as an example, according to the annual report, the gross profit margin of Jufei Optoelectronics has been declining year by year from 2011 to 2015, which are 26.56%, 23.5%, 19.22%, 16.13% and 14.47%, respectively. In the first half of the year, the gross profit margin of Jufei Optoelectronics fell below 10%, only 9.4%. What is the biggest competitor of LED lights, is it really welcoming the good, with this question, the author consulted Sun Shuang, Sun Shuang said, because the "road map" is gradually phasing out incandescent year after year from 2011 Lamps, and LED lights have only been accepted by the public in recent years. When the incandescent lamps gradually withdrew, the fluorescent lamps first received the market share of incandescent lamps, so now the market share of fluorescent lamps is still very large, and LED lamps are coming. Looking at the market is not big, so now the biggest competitor of LED lights is the fluorescent lamp that replaced incandescent lamps. And the elimination of incandescent lamps is not as exaggerated as everyone thinks, and it is not appropriate to say that LED lights are good for us. Sun Shuang believes that the development of LED lights needs to continue to improve the quality and safety of products, so that it is more acceptable to the public. LED lights want to usher in real benefits may not be the time. At present, fluorescent lamps and energy-saving lamps have a great impact on the market share of LED lamps. The rise of LED lighting is still on the road.
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