On April 1st, the CAFC management measures that have attracted the attention of the automotive industry have been formally implemented. In 2019, another important point, the assessment of new energy points, will also begin. Recently, the relevant departments also once again alarmed the industry. The four ministries and commissions jointly carried out a test on 124 passenger car manufacturers. Among them, the average fuel consumption of 80 companies such as BYD and Geely reached the standard; the fuel consumption of 44 companies such as Great Wall and Changan failed to meet the standard.
It is foreseeable that, with the CAFC's implementation of the first step, the "double-integration" policy will be suspended as "the Damocles Sword" by most car companies. For car companies such as BYD and Beiqi that hold a large number of new energy points, it is expected to usher in the first pot of gold through the points trading. For companies that have negative balances in fuel consumption such as the Great Wall and Chang'an, they will surely be burdened with a “integral debt†that must be repaid.
Double points, New Deal, Warm-up points, "Disparity between rich and poor"
The passenger car double score policy was formally implemented on the 1st of this month. According to the policy, the proportion of new energy points in 2018, 2019, and 2020 will be 8%, 10%, and 12%, respectively. In 2018, it will only be a transition. The real assessment period will begin in 2019. The official landing of the new policy indicates that on the one hand, the government requires traditional auto companies to reduce fuel consumption. On the other hand, it requires companies to increase production and sales of new energy vehicles.
Before the official launch of "Double Points," the average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle points issued by the four ministries and commissions of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology were considered as a warm-up match to help companies adapt to the "dual-integration" rule at this stage.
According to an announcement issued by four ministries and commissions, among the 124 passenger car companies in China in 2016, BYD, BAIC, and Geely performed well. Among them, BYD Auto Industry and BYD Automobile Co., Ltd. have 153,000 new energy points and 14.1 million new energy points, respectively. It is Beiqi and Geely. The scores also reach more than 100,000.
In contrast, the “black list†that did not meet the standard has received more attention. Great Wall Motors topped the list with 243,500 points of fuel consumption, followed by Chang’an Automobile, SAIC’s Beisheng, and Cheetah’s fuel consumption negative points. More than 100,000.
Those companies that do not meet the production ratio requirement must pay for the purchase of new energy vehicles plus credits from other companies. Doug said that the car learned that the future of the Ministry of Industry will build a point trading platform, so that positive points and negative points can be traded through the market, in this way to allow car companies to achieve compliance requirements.
"Points trading" makes people happy to make small businesses or take the lead
According to the announcement issued by the ministries and commissions, the top five companies that had the largest number of tradable new energy vehicles in the year were: BYD Auto Industry Co., Ltd., BYD Auto Co., Ltd., Beijing Automotive Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Geely Automobile Co., Ltd., and Hunan Jiangnan Automobile Manufacturing Co. Limited company.
Due to the credit compensation policy, New Energy Credit has already had transaction value. The industry's valuation of points in 2019 ranges from 1000-5000 yuan per minute. With the market expansion, BYD, BAIC and other car companies are expected to generate annual revenue of over one billion yuan by virtue of point transactions. On the contrary, unsatisfied car companies have to spend hundreds of millions of dollars for this. Volkswagen, General Motors, GAC Fakke and FAW Toyota, which currently have a large share of sales in the Chinese market, will face greater challenges.
Of course, with the changes in the market environment and the clarity of the policy, the car companies will not sit still. Taking Great Wall Motor as an example, under the premise that its new energy vehicle products are not fully rolled out, it seems that it will not be possible to save the name of its products on the product list of the Ministry of Industry through spending huge amounts of money to purchase new energy. In addition, in response to the integration policy, joint ventures in the new energy sector emerged in an endless stream, such as Ford and Zotye hand in hand, the public and JAC marriage. However, in the short term, it is still not easy to reach the points target.
For those car companies whose original sales volume and profitability are not strong, there is no group background, and there is no joint venture or cooperation partner who can share the fuel consumption points and deliver new energy points, the time may not be much. Southeast China Motors, Haima Motors, and Han Teng Automotive, etc., may be eliminated in the intensified competition under the premise that the future production capacity will be limited by policies.
Dong Yang, executive vice president of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, also expressed his satisfaction with this “double-integration†transcript, especially since most Chinese brand companies have completed the task of scoring through the pursuit of new energy vehicles. However, Dong Yang also pointed out that in the dual pressure of fuel consumption and new energy vehicle points assessment, the companies ranked in the last non-compliance, especially the production and sales of nearly half of the zombie enterprises will usher in the fate of mergers and reorganizations.
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