Senior analyst Jia Xinguang: The task of the company in the second half of the year is to digest the stock car


There will be a fight in the auto market at the end of the year. The competition situation in the auto market is fierce this year. No one is stealing music. Affected by SARS, the end of May last year fell by 20% from April. In May this year, the number of people fell by 20% from April, which was also affected by SARS. In economics, it was called "atypical overheating." In the history of each country’s macroeconomic regulation and control, the auto market has to be seriously affected. From the 1980s to the present, there have been seven or eight times. This macro-control, although the auto market has been affected by a relatively large amount, is much better than in the past because it used to be The auto market suddenly fell by 10% to 20%, a year-on-year drop. This situation has not yet occurred this year. Jia Xinguang cheered everyone. He said that in fact, it is not the best time to sell cars in May each year. In the first half of the year, the overall situation is still good, with an increase of more than 20%. This is rare in the world. "Now Europe, North America, Japan’s auto market is declining. We must meet 20% increase. If we develop too quickly, it will bring negative effects such as traffic jams and road construction. Therefore, I’m optimistic about the market in the first half of the year.” “Of course, I’m not Blindly optimistic, according to the situation over the years, in July and August will not be uplifted, but to maintain a smooth transition. The real sales in the gold nine silver ten, September and October will go up, the fourth quarter may appear more complex situation " Jia Xinguang believes that there will be a fight at the end of the year, including intense competition, including price cuts. The second half of the task is to digest the stock car as a senior analyst in the industry. Jia Xinguang simply predicted the auto market in the second half of the year. Since 2003, the sedan has had a phenomenon. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate has decreased quarter by quarter. For example, in the first quarter of 2003, it increased by 20% from the first quarter of 2002, by 100% in the first half of 2003, and by the end of the year it became 60%, year-on-year growth compared to the same period last year, this year is 40% from the beginning, now the second quarter has become 37%, sales is 31%, if this is called down, it is also normal, because the base number is declining, but the quantity is still growing. If this year is balanced, there will be no problem if it grows close to 1 million vehicles. The task in the second half of the year is to digest the current stock car. Now the number of manufacturers' statistics is 130,000, which is only 1/10 of the 1.24 million cars produced in the first half of the year. Strictly speaking, this inventory is not very serious, but the problem lies in the dealers, they have a handful of stock cars, some of which are sold out and sold out, which will cause great obstacles to the flow of business capital. Therefore, the first hand out of the goods, dealers face the top priority, and in the face of a sluggish auto market, there is no way to rush, can only wait for the market to digest. Price cuts to protect consumer interests Why the market is not as imaginable as everyone thinks, one of the important reasons is to hold a coin for purchase. Jia Xinguang pointed out sharply that this is divided into two aspects, one is that everyone will import cars next year. The price reduction expects how imported cars will look next year. This is what consumers are looking forward to; the other is that everyone still has an expectation for the current car price. The person who buys a car also has a siege phenomenon. He hopes to buy a car without lowering the price. The hope of buying a car is reduced as much as possible, and everyone's expectation of price is very strong. Therefore, some manufacturers sold in the first half of the year are not very good, and there is also a relationship with the price adjustment. (Reporter Jia Yan)