The new energy bus industry is currently at a stage of maturation. In this process, the electric vehicle battery technology line has also seen a hundred disputes. It is also a long-standing controversy among industry players about the advantages of Sanyuan lithium and lithium iron phosphate batteries. .
On February 24, 2016, Premier Li Keqiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council to determine measures to further support the new energy automotive industry. As one of the five major measures proposed at the meeting, it attached great importance to power batteries. The meeting proposed that we must speed up the realization of a revolutionary breakthrough in power batteries and focus on the development of key materials, battery systems and other commonalities and basic technologies. The safety of power batteries has also been elevated to an unprecedented level and has attracted the attention of the industry.
Recently, the reporter visited the power lithium battery factory and bus company on the spot and investigated the safety of the controversial ternary lithium battery. The reporter found that while the large-scale influx of enterprises, the market is gradually entering the debate.
"Security" is being amplified threshold low hidden risk
"If there is a problem with the battery on the electric vehicle, it may lead to a life-threatening accident." At the door of a power battery manufacturing plant, a person in charge told reporters while preparing to enter the factory: "This No one knows the problem, but the key is whether or not it is important. At present, the industry is not lack of safety awareness, but the quality of products is uneven, and quality processes are lacking."
Under the guidance of this person in charge, the reporter also wore overalls, which were tightly packaged from top to bottom. In fact, the preparation work for anyone before entering the factory is very complicated and it is sterilized after several rounds to ensure the clean operation of the machine. After a series of checks and the cleaning of several doors, the reporter was able to enter this highly automated power battery production plant. The reporter learned that such factories are rare in China.
The responsible person told reporters that the company's lithium iron phosphate, three yuan lithium production line, lithium iron phosphate battery market share is higher, but the three yuan lithium battery power and energy density is higher, is to improve the range of electric vehicles new products.
Regarding why the two routes were laid out synchronously, a factory source stated that lithium iron phosphate has a high requirement for the company's strength due to consistency. At the same time, it is very difficult to produce, resulting in a higher price, but its raw material reserves are abundant. When prices reach a certain level, prices can be reduced, but in the future it is difficult to meet the national requirements for the energy density of battery modules in the new plan.
Power Battery
However, the three-element lithium battery also has its weaknesses, because of its high temperature storage and recycling of ternary materials still need to be improved, and security has always been the focus of corporate research. However, with the advancement of technology, it seems that this problem can be gradually solved.
A factory technician told the reporter: “The industry believes that the ternary material is not safe, mainly considering its poor stability, the temperature must be less than 200 degrees, and the puncture will certainly occur burning and explosion. But we have undergone various experiments. At present, this problem has basically been solved."
It is understood that in order to improve the relevant aspects of the performance of the material, such as thermal stability, cycle performance or rate performance, there have been studies on doping modification of cathode materials. The current ternary material uses a 1:1:1 structure. This ternary material is more stable and mature.
Ma Junfeng, senior director of Beijing Boston Battery Technology Co., Ltd., believes that at present, ternary materials have high energy density and low-temperature performance to a certain level, which can be mass produced compared to other materials. “The ternary lithium battery produced by the company is mainly provided for passenger vehicles. It will enter the logistics vehicle field this year. The future of buses is an important market for many enterprises.â€
Although companies that have been involved in power batteries have been surging in recent years, there are not many large-scale ternary lithium battery manufacturers in China. At the Samsung Ring New Factory in Gaoxin Industrial Development Zone, which is located 21 kilometers away from the center of Xi'an, the reporter saw that the factory has basically realized fully automated production, and the robot has performed batch operations.
The reporter learned that the factory has a total floor area of ​​150,000 square meters, and the first phase of the factory has been built for 37,000 square meters, which is currently the larger-scale production base for lithium batteries. Samsung Ring New was jointly established by Samsung SDI and Anhui Huanxin. The two shareholders each held 50% of the shares and had invested 280 million yuan. At present, there are 500 new employees in Samsung Ring. By 2020, the company plans to increase the number of employees to 2,200, and accumulatively invest 600 million U.S. dollars. After the start of the first phase of the factory's production line in September last year, it produced 40,000 batteries for pure electric vehicles every year. Current customers include Yutong and Futian.
In the battery company that supplies BMW and other car companies, the safety performance of the Sanyuan lithium battery has been greatly improved. At present, the ternary lithium battery is manufactured through an electrolyte and a special diaphragm technology, and the short-circuit source is separated when the battery is short-circuited internally, thereby significantly improving the safety performance of the ternary lithium battery. In addition, the factory has established several stages of various safety devices to ensure safety from the production stage to the module and battery pack stages.
Actually, for ternary lithium battery manufacturers, besides ensuring the quality of batteries, electrolytes, separators, etc., it is more important to do a good job of safety design.
Safe design plays a crucial role in the safety of the battery. A person in charge of a battery factory introduced that the factory must use materials with high heat resistance from the material stage, and use a device that automatically discharges gas when the pressure in the battery increases, and a device that prevents the current in the battery from exceeding the normal range. . In addition, manufacturers need to use a circuit that forcibly cuts off the current when the battery is overcharged to improve safety. At the same time, the factory shall install thermal protection devices for both modules and battery packs, and apply MES automatic on-line monitoring to establish a safety assessment center.
The final product must pass through more than a dozen items such as compression, penetration, over-charging, high temperature, and drop to ensure the safety of the product. In this regard, the safety of ternary materials does not seem to be a prominent issue, but instead has found a solution, and the material is not the only standard that determines battery safety.
Nie Liang, the founder of Burtan Technology, believes that the issue of “security†is being amplified. The actual industry should focus more on battery design, corporate supervision, and industrial scale that are more prone to problems.
A person in charge of a large battery manufacturer told the reporter that the investment and technical threshold for domestic battery production and manufacturing are relatively low. Actually, enterprises that truly meet the standards in safety should have an investment scale of more than 10 million yuan. Although there are many enterprises in this field, most of them are small and medium-sized enterprises, and they are scattered. “The influx of many small and medium-sized SMEs that have invested in this industry is a hidden danger in the future development of the industry. The battery industry has a relatively high safety requirement. From material selection, process to design, it must be strictly controlled. There are higher requirements, and if companies are trying to reduce costs, ignoring these links will make it easier for new energy vehicles to have major problems in terms of security."
Power battery market dispersed without winning technical line
The industry's technical battle over power batteries has also kept the industry busy.
Looking at the current domestic technology line, China's power battery company in the field of lithium iron phosphate, due to its early development in the commercialization of the most prominent. However, with the increase in the cruising range requirements for new energy passenger vehicles, the leading battery company in China has accelerated its R&D in the development of triple lithium batteries, and its market application has been expanding.
However, it is undeniable that the current power battery market in China is facing a relatively decentralized situation, with most competitors only having a production capacity of slightly more than 1 GWH, and all manufacturers are planning capacity expansion. At present, most battery manufacturers can produce different types of power batteries according to customer needs, but there is no overwhelming advantage of one type of power battery technology circuit.
Xiao Jian, a researcher at China Investment Advisor New Energy Industry Group, believes that the safety standard is not only for batteries, but also for the safety of application safety design for battery groups. “The application safety of the power battery is a system project. In the case that it cannot guarantee that the thermal runaway of the battery does not occur completely, it must pass BMS (Battery Management System), TMS, fuse protection, thermal barrier, structural integration, etc. in the group design. Multiple security guarantees are set up. Therefore, we need to systematically attach importance to the battery safety system, instead of discussing the technical route and security in isolation."
It is precisely because the technical threshold of new energy vehicle batteries in production is not high, the technical line is not clear, so that the power battery capacity is in the rapid expansion of the middle, but the current production of high-quality power batteries for the matching there is still a gap. In the case of large batches of low-tech battery companies, the production of batteries may shift the shortage of domestic battery capacity to excess, and the industry is facing reshuffle. At the same time, enterprises with higher production quality, stricter supervision, and a more complete industrial chain are expected to emerge.
Public involvement in corporate "conservative" expansion waiting for clear policy
Although on the technical route, there are analysis of industry perspectives. However, the reporter found that most companies have a clear attitude and are still optimistic about the ternary lithium battery, and regard it as the next direction of transformation. Before the related standards and policies of the government departments are not clear, they will do “two-handed preparationâ€. At the same time, the outbreak of new energy vehicles is far below market expectations, and manufacturers of power battery companies, especially three yuan lithium batteries, have not expanded production in a timely manner, and the concentrated outbreak of production capacity will also occur later in the year.
As the power battery accounts for nearly half of the cost of electric vehicles, the demand for power batteries has rapidly increased due to the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles. This huge market demand is very attractive to manufacturers, and capital has poured into the market. This area.
The data shows that there are 103 listed companies that have entered the lithium battery field, including more than half of the ternary materials. Almost one-third of lithium battery manufacturers have already begun to allocate their funds by means of raising funds. Most other manufacturers use it as a long-term layout direction and have already begun research.
Since last year, dozens of listed companies, including Founder Motors, Shuguang, Wanma, BYD, Kelitech, JAC, and Dayang, have entered into new energy vehicle vehicles, power batteries, and other fields by raising funds. . The reporter was informed that since January last year, the scale of funds invested by companies in the new energy auto industrial chain project has reached 100 billion yuan.
At the same time, not only listed companies through the mergers and acquisitions, cooperation and other ways to get involved in the core areas of power battery BMS, the public capital giants do not hesitate to invest in shares in such a way. At the beginning of this year, Chen Fashu also invested 20 million shares in the new three-plate lithium battery company Keli technology that is being raised with a fixed increase. Recently, it is further reported that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has invested 500 million yuan in capital in cooperation with nine companies inside and outside the industry and is establishing a research institute for power batteries or a research and development platform for power batteries.
Although the power battery capital encountered heat, the reporter found that the current outbreak of power batteries is far below market expectations, because the policy is not clear, the expansion of enterprises is also relatively slow.
"In the two years of development of China's new energy vehicle market, problems such as insufficient production capacity have arisen, and the root cause of this phenomenon is the tight supply of power batteries, the decentralized size of battery manufacturers, and uneven strength. Although many vehicle manufacturers have already The R&D and layout of the battery industry began, but many car companies still face the problem of insufficient supply of high-quality power batteries,†a vendor told reporters.
Liu Yanlong, secretary-general of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, said that from the perspective of the application of power batteries in 2015, the scale will reach more than 20 billion yuan, and more than 70% will be lithium iron phosphate, in particular passenger cars account for a larger proportion and more passenger cars. To three yuan development. However, the new energy passenger vehicle subsidy policy for 2016-2020 put forward the requirements of Ekg and prompted bus companies to transfer to Sanyuan Lithium. Currently, the application of Sanyuan lithium batteries in commercial vehicles has been suspended, and some of the production capacity has been affected.
Actually, most domestic listed companies insist on the simultaneous layout of lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries on the same route. Once the market demand changes or the country completes the standard and supervision of ternary lithium batteries, these enterprises Will quickly and large-scale lithium iron phosphate battery into the field of three yuan lithium battery.
Last year, Penghui Energy Securities, who once wanted to plan to participate in the company’s lithium battery business, told reporters: “At present, the company’s layout in the battery field is mainly based on lithium iron phosphate batteries, but it is also synchronizing the research and development of ternary lithium batteries. Lithium batteries are also an important direction for the future development of power batteries."
He disclosed: "The company's main investment in the development of three yuan lithium battery is to improve its stability. Different battery materials have their advantages and disadvantages, it is difficult to say which is better, how to avoid disadvantages, to play its advantages, is the company's current research The direction. If the relevant national standards once clear, the company will soon transition into the field of three yuan lithium battery."
In an interview with the Securities Daily reporter, Xiao Yangjian, who had just achieved strategic transformation in the lithium battery industry, said: “At present, the market’s dispute over the ternary lithium battery is mainly in the safety of its materials, but from the company’s According to research and development experiments, with the advancement of technology and the improvement of materials, this problem can be solved.We believe that ternary material is an important direction in the future and we are still optimistic about this industry, although the current production of ternary lithium batteries has not yet been formalized. On the line, but once the policy is clear, the proportion of Sanyuan lithium batteries in the company's layout will be increased."
Industry insiders believe that although the current domestic market generally believes that the new energy vehicle market is expected to maintain a growth rate of 200% per year, it takes at least one year for high-quality battery products to require high product quality certification. At the same time, Sanyuan’s lithium battery standard has not yet been established. The actual effective capacity of the new capacity of the power battery is far lower than the nominal capacity.
Xiao Han believes that in the next few years, there will be risks of overcapacity after the high-speed expansion of the battery, but the Sanyuan lithium battery is still in its infancy. “Every capital rushes into the power battery industry. If the subsidy for new energy vehicles is reduced, the demand for new energy vehicles may be reduced, but at present, the demand for new energy vehicles is still rising.â€
For companies that have already invested in the field of ternary lithium batteries through fund-raising and other methods, most of them still want to mass-produce ternary lithium batteries and shorten the suspension time as soon as possible because of “customer needsâ€.
Chengmei Integrated Securities Co., Ltd. on behalf of Jumei Na said: “The company’s layout in the field of power batteries is dominated by market demand. Lithium battery business orders this year have increased significantly compared to last year. The company’s lithium-ion battery is currently mainly used for passenger vehicles. Supply and production are not affected. The future investment of the company and the expansion of applied materials will be matched according to market demand."
Some company executives also said: “Although the majority of factory production is in the second half of the year, the suspension of the application of Sanyuan power batteries on new energy buses has caused many companies to be caught off guard because there was no notice beforehand and many production lines were forced to suspend. There are also problems with customer orders. From the current point of view, production in the first half of the year has also been delayed until the second half of the year."
Three-tenths of bus manufacturers use ternary lithium industry chain linkage is the direction
According to the reporter, the reason that many battery companies are flooding into the field or accelerating their layout in this area is that the demand for ternary lithium batteries is rapidly rising. Prior to the suspension of the three-element lithium battery, it has gradually been recognized by the market and is commercially used on a large scale. In this reporter's survey, most bus manufacturers do not seem to worry about the safety of ternary materials.
“At present, the battery industry relies heavily on government support and subsidies, so policies are crucial to the development of the industry. Customers have also raised concerns about the choice of ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate. With the improvement of the customer's understanding of the ternary lithium battery, it is gradually accepted.†Xiao Yangjian told reporters.
In a reporter’s visit, a person in charge of Suzhou Jinlong told reporters: “From the experience point of view, new energy vehicles will have a higher probability of accidents occurring in the early stages of their development, so it is very important for relevant departments to hold a more rigorous attitude towards the battery industry. Lithium battery manufacturers in the process and quality, if more cautious, to some extent can avoid accidents, but not because of the lack of understanding of the entire technology line negation. Purchasing companies should have more stringent standards, Choose a high quality manufacturer."
Many passenger car manufacturers have also been trying out the various new technology paths for power batteries. According to relevant sources in Zhongtong Bus, at present, passenger car manufacturers are still focusing on lithium iron phosphate in their choice of batteries. At the same time, they will try to implement ternary lithium batteries on some models in order to develop a route that is more in line with the future direction. It is understood that at least 30% of the domestic passenger car manufacturers have already selected three yuan lithium batteries.
Chen Shundong, director of the Ankai Institute of New Energy Research, believes that the technical route itself is not good or bad, and good safety, energy density and cruising range are the indicators that determine which type of battery is more in line with market demand. As technology advances, Sanyuan will become more and more secure, and the lithium iron phosphate energy density will gradually increase. At present, the industry is facing the biggest problem is not to discuss the safety of materials, but to strengthen the industry, the company's supervision, to promote battery companies, vehicle companies, passenger car manufacturers from the material selection, security settings and other aspects to strengthen product strength.
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