According to economists in Beijing, the new economists in Beijing, China’s economic growth rate is likely to reach double digits in the first quarter. However, it cannot be concluded that China’s economy is overheating because the Chinese economy is likely to present “previously†this year. High, low and low.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, told Xinhua News Agency reporters: “It is expected that the economic growth in the first quarter will reach double digits.â€
He said that due to the low base (6.1%) in the first quarter of last year, we cannot simply conclude that the economy is overheated based on the data for the first quarter of this year. "High growth in the first quarter may not be sustainable."
China's economic data for the first quarter and March will be announced soon. According to forecasts by authoritative organizations and mainstream economists, the growth of China's GDP in the first quarter of this year will reach 11% or more, which has triggered market concerns about overheating of the economy.
According to the latest report issued by the Forecast Department of the State Information Center, the comprehensive alert index reflecting the macroeconomic conditions has entered the “Red Light District Centralâ€, with the year-on-year growth rate of M1 at the end of the year, the year-on-year growth of the RMB end-to-end balance of financial institutions, and the amount of power generation. , industrial added value and total retail sales of social consumer goods, the actual growth rate of the month, five indicators showed "overheated."
According to the forecast of Ha Jiming, the chief economist of China International Capital Corporation, China's GDP growth in the first quarter may reach 11.5%. According to predictions by Fan Jianping, director of the forecasting department of the National Information Center, the economic growth rate in the first quarter may even reach 12%.
According to the latest forecast of the World Bank, China's economic growth rate in 2010 will reach 9.5%.
Guo Shuqing, chairman of China Construction Bank, expressed his concern over the risk of overheating in China's rapid economic recovery. He said that if the GDP growth rate reaches 9.5% or more, it will be “very problematic†and will mean more redundant construction, more excess capacity, and greater capital waste.
However, people in the industry believe that taking into account factors such as the low base and the uncertainties of the economy during the same period last year, it is not possible to draw conclusions based on economic data in the first quarter that the annual economic growth is too fast.
Fan Jianping believes that although the economic growth rate in the first quarter may reach 12%, after the second quarter, the economic and industrial growth rate may fall. The current data does not indicate that the economy is overheated.
"In addition to the low base last year, we have to consider that future exports and market-led investment growth still have large uncertainties, so it is difficult to judge from the higher growth in the first quarter that the economy is overheated," Zhang Liqun pointed out.
He also believes that "the economic growth rate will gradually decrease after the second quarter."
The intelligence report issued by the Ministry of Information Prediction of the National Information Center also believes that the fact that the alert index has entered the “red light district†does not mean that the real economy is overheated. If the impact of the low base is deducted, most indicators will only return to “normal growth†levels from January to February of this year.
A report released by CICC believes that various economic data in the first quarter show that the current Chinese economy is in a steady recovery channel and there are no signs of overheating. The market’s concerns over policies are somewhat excessive.
“The price increase rate has an increasing trend, but it is mainly due to the low base effect in the first half of last year. From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, both CPI and PPI (industrial product price index) are only in line with historical seasonal trends and are gradually picking up. There are no signs of accelerating the rise," the report said.
Zhuang Jian, a senior economist at the China Development Office of the Asian Development Bank, told Xinhua News Agency that the economic growth in the first quarter is likely to see double-digit high growth. In addition to deducting the factors of the low base last year, the economic environment improved this year, monetary policy Marked effect also played a role.
Zhuang Jian said that this year's government work report sets the target for China’s economic growth in 2010 at around 8%. He hopes that the economy can achieve stable and rapid growth without major ups and downs. The high-speed growth that may occur in the first quarter has its own special reasons. It also has a phased characteristic, and economic growth in the second half of the year is likely to be lower than the increase in the first quarter.
"However, the direction of currency and credit must be adjusted in a timely manner. We must maintain a balanced and stable environment. Otherwise, problems such as rapid price increases and inflation may emerge." Zhuang Jian warned.
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