Recently, the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) announced a short-term fertilizer forecast for 2010-2011. It believes that after the recovery of global fertilizer demand in 2010, supply and demand will increase in 2011. In 2011, the fat market is overall optimistic.
Demand will continue to grow Supported by rising crop prices in the second half of 2010, global fertilizer demand will increase by 4.7% year-on-year to 171.4 million tons in 2010-2011, a record high. Among them, nitrogen fertilizer demand increased by 1.6% year-on-year to 104.2 million tons; phosphate fertilizer demand increased by 6% to 39.8 million tons; potash fertilizer demand increased to 27.4 million tons, an increase of 16.3%. The total demand for fertilizers has not increased significantly in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and West Asia, but has increased in other regions. It is estimated that the largest increase in demand in East Asia during the year was an increase of 3.1 million tons year-on-year, followed by 1.5 million tons in North America, 1.3 million tons in Latin America and 1.2 million tons in South Asia. At the same time, IFA believes that since the prices of international agricultural products may be unstable in 2011, it is difficult to predict the prices of chemical fertilizers in 2011-2012, but the overall agricultural product market is optimistic. Therefore, the demand for chemical fertilizers will continue to grow until 2011-2012.
Oversupply situation or see mitigation Due to the obvious recovery of global fertilizer demand in 2010, and the rebound rate is higher than expected, some traditional markets have seen strong recovery after the economic crisis in 2009, and some new consumption growth markets have also emerged. With the increase in international trade volume, most end-users and circulation inventories in the second half of 2010 fell to low levels, leading to strong import demand from major consumer countries. Most manufacturers took advantage of this opportunity to absorb large quantities of inventories. In 2010, global consumption of fertilizers and production showed a “V†rebound, and the total production of global nutrient nutrients increased significantly, which was a 11% increase from 2009 production. Among them, the expansion of urea production, ammonia production rose 4% year-on-year, phosphate rock production and sulfuric acid production increased by 10%, potassium fertilizer production growth rate is the largest, reaching 57%. From a global perspective, the capacity utilization rate of the fertilizer industry has reached 82% in 2010, compared with only 74% in 2009.
According to IFA's forecast, urea supply will reach 157 million tons in 2010 and will increase to 164.2 million tons in 2011. By the end of 2011, the global urea surplus will reach 8.8 million tons, accounting for 5% of the supply, so the urea export volume in 2011 may be This is an increase of 3 million tons compared to 2010, which is equivalent to 9% of the global urea trade volume. The surplus of phosphate fertilizer in 2011 will be reduced. It is estimated that the surplus will be less than 1.7 million tons P2O5. The production capacity of phosphate fertilizer will reach 35.7 million tons P2O5 in 2010, and may reach 38.8 million tons in 2011. The new production capacity mainly occurs in Brazil and China. Morocco and Saudi Arabia. Similarly, the excess amount of potash fertilizer will also be reduced. Although global potash fertilizer capacity will increase significantly, it will reach 72.5 million tons in 2010 and 74 million tons in 2011. The global effective production capacity is expected to reach 39 million tons of K2O by the end of 2011, but due to potash demand The rebound is strong, and the excess amount of potash will fall from 11.7 million tons of K2O in 2009 to 6.4 million tons of K2O in 2011.
Large-scale consumer countries will also expand production In 2010, global sales volume increased by 13% year-on-year, of which potash fertilizer trade volume increased most. However, at the end of 2010, the surge in global fertilizer consumption was mainly due to the accumulation of inventories at the end of the year in the circulation sector. In 2010, the amount of fertilizer used was 215 million tons of nutrients, which was only 7% higher than in 2009. Imports of fertilizers in Brazil, Southeast Asia, India, the United States, and Western Europe rebounded and the increase in import demand in Bangladesh and India all contributed to a significant increase in international trade volume.
The international market for synthetic ammonia, phosphate fertilizer, potash fertilizer and sulphur in 2011 was estimated to be more optimistic, which may be 4%-8% higher than the trade volume in 2010. Some large fertilizer-consuming countries, such as India and Brazil, are preparing new urea projects, so urea imports in these regions will decline, and exporting countries will start production of new projects in mid-2011 and increase their exports. In addition, a number of new phosphate fertilizer projects will be launched in 2011 and the export volume will also increase.
IFA estimates that sales of global fertilizers in 2011 will increase by 2%-3% year-on-year to 220 million tons-2.22 billion tons, of which sales of nitrogen fertilizers and phosphate fertilizers will increase by 3%, and potash fertilizers will increase by 5%.
Demand will continue to grow Supported by rising crop prices in the second half of 2010, global fertilizer demand will increase by 4.7% year-on-year to 171.4 million tons in 2010-2011, a record high. Among them, nitrogen fertilizer demand increased by 1.6% year-on-year to 104.2 million tons; phosphate fertilizer demand increased by 6% to 39.8 million tons; potash fertilizer demand increased to 27.4 million tons, an increase of 16.3%. The total demand for fertilizers has not increased significantly in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and West Asia, but has increased in other regions. It is estimated that the largest increase in demand in East Asia during the year was an increase of 3.1 million tons year-on-year, followed by 1.5 million tons in North America, 1.3 million tons in Latin America and 1.2 million tons in South Asia. At the same time, IFA believes that since the prices of international agricultural products may be unstable in 2011, it is difficult to predict the prices of chemical fertilizers in 2011-2012, but the overall agricultural product market is optimistic. Therefore, the demand for chemical fertilizers will continue to grow until 2011-2012.
Oversupply situation or see mitigation Due to the obvious recovery of global fertilizer demand in 2010, and the rebound rate is higher than expected, some traditional markets have seen strong recovery after the economic crisis in 2009, and some new consumption growth markets have also emerged. With the increase in international trade volume, most end-users and circulation inventories in the second half of 2010 fell to low levels, leading to strong import demand from major consumer countries. Most manufacturers took advantage of this opportunity to absorb large quantities of inventories. In 2010, global consumption of fertilizers and production showed a “V†rebound, and the total production of global nutrient nutrients increased significantly, which was a 11% increase from 2009 production. Among them, the expansion of urea production, ammonia production rose 4% year-on-year, phosphate rock production and sulfuric acid production increased by 10%, potassium fertilizer production growth rate is the largest, reaching 57%. From a global perspective, the capacity utilization rate of the fertilizer industry has reached 82% in 2010, compared with only 74% in 2009.
According to IFA's forecast, urea supply will reach 157 million tons in 2010 and will increase to 164.2 million tons in 2011. By the end of 2011, the global urea surplus will reach 8.8 million tons, accounting for 5% of the supply, so the urea export volume in 2011 may be This is an increase of 3 million tons compared to 2010, which is equivalent to 9% of the global urea trade volume. The surplus of phosphate fertilizer in 2011 will be reduced. It is estimated that the surplus will be less than 1.7 million tons P2O5. The production capacity of phosphate fertilizer will reach 35.7 million tons P2O5 in 2010, and may reach 38.8 million tons in 2011. The new production capacity mainly occurs in Brazil and China. Morocco and Saudi Arabia. Similarly, the excess amount of potash fertilizer will also be reduced. Although global potash fertilizer capacity will increase significantly, it will reach 72.5 million tons in 2010 and 74 million tons in 2011. The global effective production capacity is expected to reach 39 million tons of K2O by the end of 2011, but due to potash demand The rebound is strong, and the excess amount of potash will fall from 11.7 million tons of K2O in 2009 to 6.4 million tons of K2O in 2011.
Large-scale consumer countries will also expand production In 2010, global sales volume increased by 13% year-on-year, of which potash fertilizer trade volume increased most. However, at the end of 2010, the surge in global fertilizer consumption was mainly due to the accumulation of inventories at the end of the year in the circulation sector. In 2010, the amount of fertilizer used was 215 million tons of nutrients, which was only 7% higher than in 2009. Imports of fertilizers in Brazil, Southeast Asia, India, the United States, and Western Europe rebounded and the increase in import demand in Bangladesh and India all contributed to a significant increase in international trade volume.
The international market for synthetic ammonia, phosphate fertilizer, potash fertilizer and sulphur in 2011 was estimated to be more optimistic, which may be 4%-8% higher than the trade volume in 2010. Some large fertilizer-consuming countries, such as India and Brazil, are preparing new urea projects, so urea imports in these regions will decline, and exporting countries will start production of new projects in mid-2011 and increase their exports. In addition, a number of new phosphate fertilizer projects will be launched in 2011 and the export volume will also increase.
IFA estimates that sales of global fertilizers in 2011 will increase by 2%-3% year-on-year to 220 million tons-2.22 billion tons, of which sales of nitrogen fertilizers and phosphate fertilizers will increase by 3%, and potash fertilizers will increase by 5%.
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