In the first half of 2010 and the second half of the year, the trend of the domestic “chemical three brothers†can be described as twofold. In the first half of the year, the macroeconomic regulation and the systemic risks caused by the subprime mortgage crisis dragged down the PTA, PVC, LLDPE, and spot prices. In the second half of the year, with the decline of the US dollar and the expectation of inflation expectations, chemical species gradually increased. Into November, PTA launched a wave of fierce continuous limit, the main impact of the TA1105 contract 11750 yuan / ton, refreshed the high point of the listing, which led to the sharp rise in the price of PVC and LLDPE.
In the upcoming 2011, how will the prices of domestic “chemical three brothers†be interpreted?
PTA is expected to rise to new heights Compared with other commodities, crude oil in 2010 appeared to be somewhat stagnant, but after the fourth quarter, under the influence of weather conditions and tension on the peninsula, oil prices oscillated upward and showed signs of strength. In 2011, we believe that the focus of oil prices will further increase, and it is expected to return to more than US$100/barrel with a target price of US$120-130/barrel.
The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the overall petrochemical industrial chain price. Upstream PX has experienced a slowdown in capacity growth in the past two years after the period of major development in 2009. The newly added PX capacity will be around 1.8 million tons next year. Affected by lower ethylene prices, naphtha cracking will be underemployed. It will limit the supply of PX to some extent. Therefore, we expect that PX will return to the normal profit range in 2011, and its cost support to PTA will also be reflected, which will also block the downside of PTA.
On the other hand, from the viewpoint of capacity expansion, the new capacity of PTA in 2011 was about 4.4 million tons, but it was mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, there was almost no new device put into operation. At the same time, downstream polyester's new capacity in the first half of the year was 2 million tons. Calculated at an operating rate of 80%, the monthly increase in PTA demand was 115,000 tons. Since 2010, PTA has continued to maintain a relatively high production load, and most of the time, it is above 90%. Next year, the start-up load will continue to be limited. Therefore, the expansion of downstream production capacity strongly supports PTA demand.
In addition, the acceleration of cotton prices since September 2010 has played a crucial role in the development of the PTA market. Even if the cotton price is later adjusted, it is impossible to return to the low range below 20,000 yuan. Under the background of the appreciation of the renminbi, the purchase of chemical fiber by downstream textile and apparel companies will still increase in 2011.
At present, the main PTA TA1105 contract price has risen to more than 10,000 yuan, but historically, the PTA price is not too high, investors do not need to "fear high", next year's price can still be high to see a line or even hit a new record high, is expected during the year The highs are in April and May. However, special attention should be given to the state's regulation of the futures market. Policy risks may also cause PTAs to trend less than expected.
PVC and LLDPE are on the upswing. Looking forward to the trend of LLDPE and PVC in 2011, we expect that in the new year, the prices of LLDPE and PVC will remain under the support of global excess liquidity, but the rising rate and speed will be Under the strong control of the country, it appears to be relatively limited and stable. Among them, LLDPE may remain relatively strong compared to the weakening of PVC cost support. The following factors require investors to pay special attention:
First, the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction. In 2011, it is worth noting whether the national energy-saving and emission-reduction efforts can continue the iron fist method since the second half of 2010. If there is a slight relaxation, the current sharp drop in the price of high-grade calcium carbide will be inevitable, and the strength of PVC cost support may be greatly reduced.
Second, the state's performance in real estate regulation. The control effect of the domestic property market is still far from the government's expectation. In 2011, whether the new housing starts data of the domestic property market can continue to maintain rapid growth, and direct support for the downstream consumption of PVC will become the key to the relative strength of PVC.
Third, to protect the building of housing construction. In 2011, the government promised 10 million sets of affordable housing construction plans. If the plan is implemented, the support for the PVC price will be very strong.
For LLDPE, since 2010, with the continuous increase of new production capacity, the situation of oversupply has gradually become the mainstream of the market. However, this situation has changed with the national measures to protect diesel production (reducing naphtha production and increasing diesel production). Investors can pay close attention to the implementation of national policies. The policy does not change, and LLDPE will remain strong overall.
In addition, oil prices will easily rise and fall in 2011, which will form a strong support for the cost of LLDPE. Moreover, since the second half of 2010, domestic agricultural product market prices have emerged.
In the upcoming 2011, how will the prices of domestic “chemical three brothers†be interpreted?
PTA is expected to rise to new heights Compared with other commodities, crude oil in 2010 appeared to be somewhat stagnant, but after the fourth quarter, under the influence of weather conditions and tension on the peninsula, oil prices oscillated upward and showed signs of strength. In 2011, we believe that the focus of oil prices will further increase, and it is expected to return to more than US$100/barrel with a target price of US$120-130/barrel.
The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the overall petrochemical industrial chain price. Upstream PX has experienced a slowdown in capacity growth in the past two years after the period of major development in 2009. The newly added PX capacity will be around 1.8 million tons next year. Affected by lower ethylene prices, naphtha cracking will be underemployed. It will limit the supply of PX to some extent. Therefore, we expect that PX will return to the normal profit range in 2011, and its cost support to PTA will also be reflected, which will also block the downside of PTA.
On the other hand, from the viewpoint of capacity expansion, the new capacity of PTA in 2011 was about 4.4 million tons, but it was mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, there was almost no new device put into operation. At the same time, downstream polyester's new capacity in the first half of the year was 2 million tons. Calculated at an operating rate of 80%, the monthly increase in PTA demand was 115,000 tons. Since 2010, PTA has continued to maintain a relatively high production load, and most of the time, it is above 90%. Next year, the start-up load will continue to be limited. Therefore, the expansion of downstream production capacity strongly supports PTA demand.
In addition, the acceleration of cotton prices since September 2010 has played a crucial role in the development of the PTA market. Even if the cotton price is later adjusted, it is impossible to return to the low range below 20,000 yuan. Under the background of the appreciation of the renminbi, the purchase of chemical fiber by downstream textile and apparel companies will still increase in 2011.
At present, the main PTA TA1105 contract price has risen to more than 10,000 yuan, but historically, the PTA price is not too high, investors do not need to "fear high", next year's price can still be high to see a line or even hit a new record high, is expected during the year The highs are in April and May. However, special attention should be given to the state's regulation of the futures market. Policy risks may also cause PTAs to trend less than expected.
PVC and LLDPE are on the upswing. Looking forward to the trend of LLDPE and PVC in 2011, we expect that in the new year, the prices of LLDPE and PVC will remain under the support of global excess liquidity, but the rising rate and speed will be Under the strong control of the country, it appears to be relatively limited and stable. Among them, LLDPE may remain relatively strong compared to the weakening of PVC cost support. The following factors require investors to pay special attention:
First, the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction. In 2011, it is worth noting whether the national energy-saving and emission-reduction efforts can continue the iron fist method since the second half of 2010. If there is a slight relaxation, the current sharp drop in the price of high-grade calcium carbide will be inevitable, and the strength of PVC cost support may be greatly reduced.
Second, the state's performance in real estate regulation. The control effect of the domestic property market is still far from the government's expectation. In 2011, whether the new housing starts data of the domestic property market can continue to maintain rapid growth, and direct support for the downstream consumption of PVC will become the key to the relative strength of PVC.
Third, to protect the building of housing construction. In 2011, the government promised 10 million sets of affordable housing construction plans. If the plan is implemented, the support for the PVC price will be very strong.
For LLDPE, since 2010, with the continuous increase of new production capacity, the situation of oversupply has gradually become the mainstream of the market. However, this situation has changed with the national measures to protect diesel production (reducing naphtha production and increasing diesel production). Investors can pay close attention to the implementation of national policies. The policy does not change, and LLDPE will remain strong overall.
In addition, oil prices will easily rise and fall in 2011, which will form a strong support for the cost of LLDPE. Moreover, since the second half of 2010, domestic agricultural product market prices have emerged.
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