Analysis and Prediction of Long-term Import and Export Situation of CNC Machine Tools

The main objective of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee on the economic and social development of the 12th Five-Year Plan pointed out that "smooth and rapid economic development", "significant progress in the strategic adjustment of economic structure" and "income for urban and rural residents are generally faster increase". The CNC machine tool industry is faced with the important task of adjusting the economic structure and transforming the mode of development. We must vigorously develop emerging strategic industries, research and develop high-end CNC machine tools and their functional components, automated complete production lines, and intelligent control systems. With the adjustment of industrial structure, the product structure is gradually optimized, and the structure of import and export of CNC machine tools is bound to change.

According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, GDP of developed economies will increase by about 2.4% in 2011, and GDP of developing countries will increase by about 6.6%. It is expected that international market demand will increase, especially in China and emerging economies and in development. The country has continued to expand its economic and technological cooperation. It has established six free trade areas with ASEAN countries, and signed free trade area agreements with countries such as Chile, Peru and Singapore. Therefore, the international economic environment in 2011 is conducive to steady and rapid development of foreign trade in the CNC machine tool industry in China.

Given that the current global economic recovery is still underpowered, many deep-seated contradictions and problems have yet to be resolved. Coupled with the impact of the European sovereign debt crisis, the US economy has picked up weakly and economic development has become more uncertain. At the same time, the supply and demand of resource products in the international market are still relatively tight, some raw material prices may rise, and the expected appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the increase in the cost of labor in China will all increase the export costs of CNC machine tools. What needs special attention is that under the economic downturn, trade protectionism will continue to occur in various countries. All these will have an impact on the expansion of China's CNC machine tool industry.

Based on the above analysis, it is expected that the import and export of the CNC machine tool industry will continue to grow in 2011, and the structure of import and export products will improve. On the import side, the proportion of imports of large heavy-duty machine tools and expensive machine tools may continue to decline. The import of key components required for domestic companies to develop high-end machine tools and heavy-duty machine tools will increase.

On the export side, except for a small number of high-end and heavy-duty machine tools, they may continue to make breakthroughs and enter the international market; middle and low-end CNC machine tools, high-quality ordinary machine tools suitable for user needs, and metal cutting tools and abrasive tools, forging and stamping tools, machine tool accessories And so on, will still be welcomed by the international market and users.

The development of the CNC machine tool industry mainly depends on the fixed assets of the machinery industry (mainly required for machine tools) and export pull. It is expected that the growth rate of fixed assets in China's machinery industry in 2011 will not increase by about 40% in the previous year. (From January to September 2010, the fixed assets of the machinery industry completed 1.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 30.35% over the same period of last year), so expanding exports has become Drive the important aspects of the development of the industry. To this end, we recommend that: to adapt to changes in international market demand, adjust and optimize the structure of export products; open up potential markets, pay attention to the European sovereign debt crisis and the impact of the US quantitative easing monetary policy; actively respond to the impact of imports of CNC machine tools from Taiwan and improve competitiveness; For the analysis of imported equipment, the research and development of products with large import volume was selected; the exchange rate risk was circumvented and RMB settlement was promoted.

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