Affected by the fluctuation of international oil prices, the prices of major domestic petrochemical products first rose and fell afterwards in 2006, a slight increase over the previous year. It is estimated that due to factors such as demand slowdown in 2007, the prices of major petrochemical products in China will fall back.
First, the world's major institutions and research departments are generally expected to slow down the growth rate of the world economy in 2007, which will have a certain impact on the petrochemical market, but the overall impact is not great. According to the “2007 World Economic Situation and Prospects†issued by the UN on January 10, the growth rate of the world economy in 2007 is expected to be 3.2%, which is a decrease from 4% in 2005 and 3.8% in 2006.
From a regional point of view, in 2007, the U.S. economic growth rate fell to 2.2%, Japan and the European Union’s economic growth rate will remain at about 2%, and the economic growth rates of developing countries and countries with economies in transition will be 5.9% and 6.5%, respectively. Of course, many research institutions also believe that the U.S. economy is still in a healthy state, and its key indicators such as employment rate and consumer spending are in good conditions; the European and Japanese economies are currently showing no sign of recession, and China’s economy still maintains a relatively rapid growth rate. The demand in some Asian countries is growing. Therefore, although the global economic growth rate will decline in 2007, the situation is still good, and the demand for international and domestic petrochemical products will continue to increase, making it unlikely that the price of petrochemical products will fall sharply.
Second, the drop in oil prices in the international market in 2007 will drive the price of petrochemical products to fall. Due to the slowdown in the global economic growth rate and the long-term high oil prices that have enabled oil consuming countries and importing countries to step up efforts to implement energy-saving measures, the increase in oil demand in 2007 will decrease, while the oil supply capacity will continue to increase. There are no major international political events in the oil region. In 2007, the oil price in the international market has fallen from 2006. It is a foregone conclusion. The drop in oil prices in the international market will directly lead to a certain decline in the prices of international and domestic petrochemical products. Of course, due to factors such as the characteristics of the industry chain, the price drop of petrochemical products will be significantly less than the decline in oil prices.
Third, changes in the prices of related products will also have a certain impact on the price trend of petrochemical products. Among them, the most influential one is the impact of natural rubber prices on the price of synthetic rubber. If the price of natural rubber in 2007 is affected by the production and export of rubber-producing countries and the price rises, synthetic rubber may be used as an alternative and its price may not increase. The price of the entire petrochemical product has changed.
In addition, from the overall situation of domestic industrial product ex-factory prices, the increase in the ex-factory prices of industrial products has continued to fall since the second half of 2006. The increase in the prices of production materials fell from 4.8% in July to 3.4% in November, and fell 1.4%. If the overall increase in the domestic industrial product prices in 2007 continues to fall, it will also lead to a slight fall in petrochemical prices.
First, the world's major institutions and research departments are generally expected to slow down the growth rate of the world economy in 2007, which will have a certain impact on the petrochemical market, but the overall impact is not great. According to the “2007 World Economic Situation and Prospects†issued by the UN on January 10, the growth rate of the world economy in 2007 is expected to be 3.2%, which is a decrease from 4% in 2005 and 3.8% in 2006.
From a regional point of view, in 2007, the U.S. economic growth rate fell to 2.2%, Japan and the European Union’s economic growth rate will remain at about 2%, and the economic growth rates of developing countries and countries with economies in transition will be 5.9% and 6.5%, respectively. Of course, many research institutions also believe that the U.S. economy is still in a healthy state, and its key indicators such as employment rate and consumer spending are in good conditions; the European and Japanese economies are currently showing no sign of recession, and China’s economy still maintains a relatively rapid growth rate. The demand in some Asian countries is growing. Therefore, although the global economic growth rate will decline in 2007, the situation is still good, and the demand for international and domestic petrochemical products will continue to increase, making it unlikely that the price of petrochemical products will fall sharply.
Second, the drop in oil prices in the international market in 2007 will drive the price of petrochemical products to fall. Due to the slowdown in the global economic growth rate and the long-term high oil prices that have enabled oil consuming countries and importing countries to step up efforts to implement energy-saving measures, the increase in oil demand in 2007 will decrease, while the oil supply capacity will continue to increase. There are no major international political events in the oil region. In 2007, the oil price in the international market has fallen from 2006. It is a foregone conclusion. The drop in oil prices in the international market will directly lead to a certain decline in the prices of international and domestic petrochemical products. Of course, due to factors such as the characteristics of the industry chain, the price drop of petrochemical products will be significantly less than the decline in oil prices.
Third, changes in the prices of related products will also have a certain impact on the price trend of petrochemical products. Among them, the most influential one is the impact of natural rubber prices on the price of synthetic rubber. If the price of natural rubber in 2007 is affected by the production and export of rubber-producing countries and the price rises, synthetic rubber may be used as an alternative and its price may not increase. The price of the entire petrochemical product has changed.
In addition, from the overall situation of domestic industrial product ex-factory prices, the increase in the ex-factory prices of industrial products has continued to fall since the second half of 2006. The increase in the prices of production materials fell from 4.8% in July to 3.4% in November, and fell 1.4%. If the overall increase in the domestic industrial product prices in 2007 continues to fall, it will also lead to a slight fall in petrochemical prices.
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