Propagation of propylene in Asia continues to surpass ethylene

Due to the massive demand for propylene in China, Asia has faced a significant shortage of this essential petrochemical feedstock in recent years. The growing demand, coupled with rising prices, has attracted substantial investment into the region's propylene production. According to CMAI analysis, Asia is set to become the largest new source of propylene globally over the next five years, with around 41% of new capacity relying on alternative technologies. This shift will boost the share of propylene from non-traditional sources in Asia from under 7% in 2005 to 12% by 2010. The analysis also highlights that propylene demand growth continues to outpace that of ethylene, while traditional steam cracking facilities have not kept up with the increasing need. Most new crackers are based on ethane, which produces little or no propylene as a byproduct. As a result, propylene supply has tightened further, and prices have surged. This has made it increasingly necessary to invest in alternative technologies to meet future demand. Although specialized propylene production is generally more expensive than steam cracking or refining, rising propylene prices and improved efficiency in alternative methods have spurred interest in technologies such as propane dehydrogenation, metathesis, high-carbon olefin cracking, FCC, and methanol-to-olefins. These innovations are now gaining traction across the industry. In Asia, four transposition conversion units are already operational, contributing a total of 580,000 tons/year of propylene. These include LG Chemical’s facilities in South Korea, a joint venture between Sumitomo and Shell in Singapore, and others. Meanwhile, the Middle East and Africa are making heavy investments in flexible steam crackers, refineries, and alternative technologies. By 2010, these regions are expected to transition from net importers to net exporters of propylene. In Israel, Carmel Olefin expanded its propylene output to 210,000 tons/year through new steam crackers and transposition units. Sasol in South Africa plans to increase production by 340,000 tons/year using high-carbon olefin cracking. Most Middle Eastern investments focus on ethane-based crackers due to low-cost feedstock, but several propylene-focused projects are also underway. In contrast, the U.S. and Europe have seen slower demand growth for propylene, with minimal new capacity added. In North America, over half of the 20 million tons/year supply comes from refineries, 45% from steam cracking, and only 2% from alternatives. The U.S. remains the world’s top exporter of propylene and derivatives, though its global market share is expected to decline slightly. In Europe, steam cracking accounts for about 72% of propylene production, with refineries supplying 25% and alternatives just 3%. With weak demand forecasts, Europe is not investing in new crackers. Instead, Middle Eastern imports of ethylene and derivatives are expected to rise, potentially leading to a decline in European propylene demand. Supply from refineries and alternative technologies is also expected to remain limited.

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