On September 13, an unnamed industry expert voiced strong concerns about the potential consequences of the current methanol boom during an interview with reporters. In recent months, several experts have raised doubts about the raw material supply, environmental impact, and overall market sustainability of methanol, especially as its production continues to expand rapidly.
In recent years, provinces rich in coal and natural gas—such as Shanxi, Henan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Ningxia, and Shaanxi—have launched a wave of methanol projects to address energy shortages and economic imbalances. Reports on new methanol plants coming online have become increasingly common. According to forecasts, at the current pace of development, China’s annual methanol output could grow by millions of tons each year. By 2010, the total capacity of approved and ongoing methanol projects, combined with existing facilities, is expected to reach 28 million tons, with investments exceeding 50 billion yuan. Within just four or five years, China’s annual methanol production capacity could be more than four times what it is today.
Many experts point out that the average annual growth rate of methanol as a basic chemical feedstock and solvent in China is around 15%. However, a sudden increase of several million tons per year is likely to create overcapacity issues in downstream markets. While methanol-to-olefins (MTO) is seen as a promising growth area, the technology is still underdeveloped, and many projects remain uncertain. Another major use of methanol is as a fuel alternative to gasoline. The industry remains divided on this application. Some argue that China should avoid promoting coal-based methanol or dimethyl ether as vehicle fuels, suggesting that the development of methanol as a fuel won’t accelerate quickly. However, if breakthroughs occur in MTO technology, methanol protein production, or solutions to environmental and safety challenges related to methanol fuel, consumption could rise significantly. Otherwise, once all these projects are completed, they may face severe market risks.
Experts are also worried about the unreasonably large scale of some existing and ongoing methanol projects. Some companies are rushing to profit, using outdated technologies from the 1970s and 1980s. Such projects not only waste valuable resources but also risk creating confusion in the downstream market. With unclear government policies on methanol industry development, these inefficient projects continue to move forward at a rapid pace.
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