Demand declines and the chemical industry's economy is declining
In the first 10 months of this year, the petrochemical industry achieved a total output value of 8.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 33.8% year-on-year, of which the chemical industry was 539 million yuan, an increase of 36.3% year-on-year. With the slowdown in economic growth, the downturn in the downstream chemical industry has inhibited the demand for chemical products, and the growth rate of the industry has dropped significantly.
It is expected that the profitability of the industry will be lower than this year, and the degree of demand recovery will determine the growth of the industry.
Under the general trend of a slowdown in macroeconomic growth, it is difficult to avoid falling profits in the industry. As the new capacity of the industry slows down, the recovery of demand will directly affect the growth rate of the chemical industry.
The industry valuation office is at a historical low; it is expected that if the stock index rebounds next year, the chemical industry will basically synchronize with the broader market. Maintain the investment rating of “standard†for basic chemical industry and “overweight†for the new material sub-sector.
The "12th Five-Year Plan" will maintain high growth in the chemical industry, and import alternatives and new materials will have room for development
According to the “12th Five-Year Plan†of the national petrochemical industry, by 2015, the total output value of the industry will increase to about 16 trillion yuan, and the average annual growth rate of petrochemical industry output will reach over 10% in the next few years.
In the future, as the resources of raw materials and the competition for basic chemicals become increasingly fierce, the profitability of basic chemicals will remain at a relatively low level. Those products that rely on technological breakthroughs to achieve development are expected to receive excess returns. Large resource-based subdivided industries, such as crude oil, natural gas, and potash fertilizers; polymers such as olefins and polyethylene, and synthetic fiber monomers such as ethylene glycol/caprolactam, etc. have a large space for import substitution; new chemical materials and new special types that are in short supply in China Chemicals and other high-end products have vast room for growth and all have investment value.
Relatively optimistic about the recovery of profitability of basic chemicals, imported alternative petrochemical products and new materials
1) The price of chemical raw materials is at a relatively low level, and the decrease in cost will benefit downstream fine chemical companies. Suggested attention: Germany and the United States Chemical (Textile auxiliaries), Yahua Group (civil explosion).
2) Scarce resources and imported alternative products have long-term investment value. Suggested attention: Xingfa Group (Phosphorite), Hualu Hengsheng (ethylene glycol).
3) High-end product manufacturers such as new chemical materials and new special-purpose chemicals that are in short supply in China. Suggested attention: Blonde Technology (degradable plastics, carbon fiber), Kangde new (optical film), Tianzhu new material (structural composite materials), Wynn belt industry (calendering thermoplastic elastomer conveyor belt).
4)Traditional cyclical industries are concerned about the oversold and resilient white-horse stocks. Such as Yantai Wanhua (good flexibility, building energy-saving material standards may pass), Hubei Yihua (nitrogen / phosphate fertilizer, PVC elasticity are higher).
Risk Warning: If the demand is long-term sluggish, the industry growth rate will be lower than expected.
Generally, the main parameters are determined according to the requirements of the material handling system, the conditions of the loading and unloading sites, the relevant production process and the characteristics of the materials.
â‘ conveying capacity: Conveyor capacity refers to the amount of material transported per unit of time. In the delivery of bulk material, the hourly delivery of material mass or volume calculation; in the delivery of articles into pieces, the number of hours per hour delivery.
â‘¡ conveying speed: improve the transmission speed can improve the transmission capacity. When the conveyor belt is used as a pulling member and the conveying length is large, the conveying speed is increased. However, high-speed operation of the belt conveyor should pay attention to vibration, noise and start, braking and other issues. For the chain as a tractor conveyor, conveyor speed should not be too large to prevent increased power load. At the same time the process of operation of the conveyor, conveyor speed should be determined in accordance with the production process requirements.
â‘¢ component size: conveyor component size, including conveyor belt width, strip width, hopper volume, pipe diameter and container size. The size of these components directly affect the transport capacity of the conveyor.
â‘£ conveying length and inclination: the length of the transmission line and the size of the angle of a direct impact on the total resistance of the conveyor and the required power.
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Shandong Sinolion Machinery Corp., Ltd. , https://www.sinolion.cc