If 2007 is the year of reorganization of the Chinese auto industry, it is not an exaggeration to say that only the merger of SAIC and SAIC is sufficient to illustrate this point. However, in the future of the Chinese auto industry, 2007 is just a large-scale reshuffle, and the real wave of restructuring has just begun.
Policy: imperative
As early as in the relevant policies of the Chinese automobile industry, there have been key support for two or three key automobile companies. Later, the new automobile industry development policy and the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†for the automotive industry have become “a numberâ€.
For example, Article 3 of the "Automobile Industry Development Policy" shows that in 2010, automobile manufacturers will form a number of well-known brands of automobiles, motorcycles and parts products.
In the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", it is clearly stated in the section of the automobile that the state "leads enterprises to merge and reorganize in the competition and form a number of enterprises with a capacity of 1 million."
How to form these final "several" enterprises, though not specified, is still pointed out in the industrial policy as a general guideline, that is, "according to the combination of market competition and macro-control, through the strategic reorganization of enterprises to achieve Automobile industry structure optimization and upgrade."
Therefore, the birth of a large-scale automobile enterprise group by restructuring is first and foremost the need of the country's overall strategic development plan, and this plan should be completed during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, that is, by 2010 at the latest.
The year 2008 coincided with the third year of the Five-Year Plan. The restructuring strategy also reached a stage of intense implementation. Therefore, the brewing stage in 2006, the 2007 curtain-up stage, and the large-scale implementation stage after 2008 were dominant. The main theme of the policy of the development of China's auto industry in the future.
Crystal Ball: Science or Perjury
Consistent with the development of China’s automobile industry, related to the relevant state agencies, an earlier domestic research report suggested that from the perspective of the development status of the international auto industry, auto companies with an annual output of less than 1 million cars can no longer exist alone. Two million vehicles are also facing restructuring.
The conclusion of this report is therefore that reorganization and integration is inevitable for Chinese auto companies that are distorted by growth in the international automotive environment and controlled by multinational technology.
Coincidentally, 2008 coincided with the 10th anniversary of the Dyke merger. The largest merger and acquisition case in the history of the world car industry today was disorganized. In the mid-1990s, the Mavericks' acquisition of the BMW Rover case was a total of more than 7 billion BMWs in 2000. It sold Rover, leaving only the MINI brand.
During the period, Schlump of Daimler-Benz, Eton of Chrysler, and Bi Rui-de of BMW were almost all affected by a weighty consulting report at that time. The report, which is said to have come from a world-renowned consulting firm, believes that the recession of the auto industry will come and auto companies with sales of less than 1.8 million to 2 million will have a hard time surviving.
But what is embarrassing is that the merger and acquisitions that resulted from this report did not enjoy the years after the merger. It was rather difficult.
This kind of crystal ball prediction for the automotive industry, although it has its own reasons, but how to operate the acquisition is even more difficult.
Who makes "Pteris"?
A traditional Chinese logic is that it prefers to be a chicken head and not an phoenix tail. For the Chinese auto industry in the current “Spring and Autumn Periodâ€, it is relatively simple for the country to pick out some targets for mergers and acquisitions, but how easy is it to pick out those target companies that have been acquired?
Everyone realizes that the international automobile industry has gone through a century-long history. Currently, the "6+3" global famous brands (GM, Ford, Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler-Chrysler, Renault-Nissan, and BMW, Honda, etc. The French Peugeot-Citroen, three relatively independent automotive companies, have mastered the right of the world's auto industry.
And how many of the more than 100 large and small car manufacturers in China currently account for nearly 9 million cars in China?
Taking the passenger car as an example, in 2007, the performance of the self-owned brand sedan market should be a very good year. At the end of 2007, the cumulative sales volume of self-owned brand sedan was over 1.2 million to reach 124.22 million units, accounting for 26% of the total sales of cars, and less than three points. one.
Which Chinese auto company can be a member of the future world auto group? There is no definitive answer yet!
To build such a company, it is one of the quicker ways to carry out strategic reorganization.
Undoubtedly, in 2007, SAIC Motor, FAW, and Dongfeng, each with a production and sales volume of more than one million vehicles, were active players in the M&A market.
The Guangzhou Automobile, Beijing Automotive, Changan may also join this camp, then Chery? What about Brilliance? There are more companies, what kind of position will they be in this war of mergers and acquisitions?
need to wait? Waiting for a chance like Nanjing Auto again? Or take the initiative to join the marriage together to create the world giant?
The power of the country is naturally endless. Although the Chinese auto market has been very market-oriented, companies are still firmly in the hands of the state. However, the arrangement of marriage can only make the company form a legal de facto status of marriage, but it can not control the quality of life after marriage. Good or bad, everything is possible!
Systemic itch?
Allowing the market to decide on the form of restructuring, the participants in the restructuring, and the future of restructuring may be another option.
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