The change in energy prices “thunderstorms and rains are smallâ€, and some “raindrops†are still being “forced†when international crude oil prices rise at 140 US dollars. However, in the face of the timing of price reforms, where energy prices have begun to fluctuate downward and CPI prices have risen at the same time, it seems that there are not many people who are talking about them.
The reason why the international crude oil price is down is the time to push forward the reform of energy prices. The well-known reason is that our energy prices are relatively low, the refined oil prices are even upside down, and the oil companies have suffered large losses. The price increase is not just the core of energy price reform. However, to rationalize energy prices, this is the part that most discourages decision-makers under the high CPI.
Now is the time. International oil prices have started to decline since late July and are currently only maintained at US$110-120. CPI growth has also declined for three consecutive months (6.3% in July), although such timing is not better than “80 US dollars and 5 % or less is better, but it's always an opportunity.
The latest energy price reform should be considered "a last resort" in June. When international oil prices ran all the way to a level of nearly 140 US dollars per barrel, the huge financial subsidies pressure caused the government to make up its mind and increase the price of refined oil by 17%, and the sales price was increased by about 4.5%.
After mid-July, as the dollar strengthened, international oil prices began to plummet and remained at $110 to $120 a barrel, a drop of more than 20% from the highest point. Needless to say, this provides an opportunity to rationalize domestic energy prices.
At the same time, the domestic macro trend is also walking on the expected regulatory track. The 6.3% increase in CPI in July was not only lower than the previous forecasts of a number of institutions, but also formed a trend of CPI gains falling for three consecutive months, which caused the release of structural inflation to full inflation. Experts predict that the continued decline in CPI gains will continue.
Therefore, whether the reform of energy prices can be started in due course has once again become the focus of all parties in the market. Although the international crude oil prices are low, and the domestic oil stocks are sufficient to make the refined oil price adjustment power weaken, but the energy price reform is certainly done, and it is a systematic project. It is very important to choose the opportunity to oscillate relatively less.
"Now is a relatively good opportunity." In the interview, an expert from the Energy Development Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission told Newsweek that "Although it seems impossible to completely straighten out prices, it can at least go further. We will reduce the subsidy pressure caused by the inversion of refined oil prices; on the other hand, it will lay the foundation for future integration."
Whether the adjustment of prices will make inflationary pressures, which have already improved, take a turn back, Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, told the Journal that in the short term, adjusting energy prices may put pressure on the inflation situation. However, if energy prices are to be rationalized in a well-directed direction, short-term inflationary pressures will gradually ease after they are released. The price adjustment is not much related to inflation, so it will not necessarily cause inflation pressure in the second round.
Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of Galaxy Securities, also called for “should seize the opportunity to reform the oil and electricity pricing mechanism.†She said that if timing is not absolutely right, the key is to see if the economy can withstand, and China currently There is no double-digit hyperinflation as peripheral countries do. "So, we should seize the opportunity to adjust the energy pricing mechanism."
"Unless the international oil price drops to the level of 80 US dollars per barrel, our refined oil prices are still upside down." Zhu Baoliang told reporters that at current international oil prices to maintain the level of 110 US dollars per barrel, the domestic refined oil prices and international prices There is still a gap of about 2,000 yuan per ton. What is even more noteworthy is that experts interviewed generally believe that the decline in international oil prices is not a long-term trend, and rising prices are still the main theme of energy prices in the future. Therefore, it may not be too long for oil prices to leave China with a macro strategic adjustment.
The direction of China's energy price reform is to follow international market rules and change the long-distorted reality of energy prices. At present, it is in the transition from the government-controlled price system to the market price system, and the price has been rationalized to avoid energy waste and to make the overweight industrial structure green.
In fact, as early as 2005, China has formed a relatively comprehensive oil product pricing mechanism. The target is also set to be in line with international standards. However, this mechanism has not really operated in reality. The current price of refined oil is still in the market. Based on the unified pricing by the government.
“The reason why people feel that they have not taken a big step is because the 'one-step' solution does not meet our national conditions and can only adopt a 'gradual' approach; on the other hand, it is also because the reform of the energy price system is not only The problem is only in the energy sector, but it involves many areas of interest and requires the cooperation of a series of supporting measures. Therefore, it is more complex and difficult to implement. In an interview, an expert from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences told this reporter . Indeed, some experts have warned that inflationary pressure is still the enemy of economic development, and price changes, including the mechanism for the formation of refined oil prices, must be treated with caution.
At present, the dependence on China's crude oil imports has approached 50%. "If the reform of the refined oil pricing mechanism cannot be completed within the limited oil price drop channel and changes in the current high energy consumption and high pollution growth mode, when the international oil price rises again, the Chinese economy will We are facing even tougher tests. Now we have an opportunity. If we miss the problem, the problems we face will gradually increase, and we will encounter more and more problems. When we have to adjust, we will have to pay a higher price," the National Development and Reform Commission Energy Institute interviewed. The expert said.
Zhang Guobao, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the National Energy Administration, said recently that changes in domestic refined oil prices after the Olympic Games will be adjusted according to the overall economic development status and the energy situation at home and abroad. According to sources, the decision-makers have already clarified the reform ideas for refined oil prices. Some analysts believe that the government will be more proactive in price reforms, change the status of being forced by the market and companies to go step by step; reforms will also focus on fundamentals and completely rationalize institutional relations.
The reason why the international crude oil price is down is the time to push forward the reform of energy prices. The well-known reason is that our energy prices are relatively low, the refined oil prices are even upside down, and the oil companies have suffered large losses. The price increase is not just the core of energy price reform. However, to rationalize energy prices, this is the part that most discourages decision-makers under the high CPI.
Now is the time. International oil prices have started to decline since late July and are currently only maintained at US$110-120. CPI growth has also declined for three consecutive months (6.3% in July), although such timing is not better than “80 US dollars and 5 % or less is better, but it's always an opportunity.
The latest energy price reform should be considered "a last resort" in June. When international oil prices ran all the way to a level of nearly 140 US dollars per barrel, the huge financial subsidies pressure caused the government to make up its mind and increase the price of refined oil by 17%, and the sales price was increased by about 4.5%.
After mid-July, as the dollar strengthened, international oil prices began to plummet and remained at $110 to $120 a barrel, a drop of more than 20% from the highest point. Needless to say, this provides an opportunity to rationalize domestic energy prices.
At the same time, the domestic macro trend is also walking on the expected regulatory track. The 6.3% increase in CPI in July was not only lower than the previous forecasts of a number of institutions, but also formed a trend of CPI gains falling for three consecutive months, which caused the release of structural inflation to full inflation. Experts predict that the continued decline in CPI gains will continue.
Therefore, whether the reform of energy prices can be started in due course has once again become the focus of all parties in the market. Although the international crude oil prices are low, and the domestic oil stocks are sufficient to make the refined oil price adjustment power weaken, but the energy price reform is certainly done, and it is a systematic project. It is very important to choose the opportunity to oscillate relatively less.
"Now is a relatively good opportunity." In the interview, an expert from the Energy Development Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission told Newsweek that "Although it seems impossible to completely straighten out prices, it can at least go further. We will reduce the subsidy pressure caused by the inversion of refined oil prices; on the other hand, it will lay the foundation for future integration."
Whether the adjustment of prices will make inflationary pressures, which have already improved, take a turn back, Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, told the Journal that in the short term, adjusting energy prices may put pressure on the inflation situation. However, if energy prices are to be rationalized in a well-directed direction, short-term inflationary pressures will gradually ease after they are released. The price adjustment is not much related to inflation, so it will not necessarily cause inflation pressure in the second round.
Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of Galaxy Securities, also called for “should seize the opportunity to reform the oil and electricity pricing mechanism.†She said that if timing is not absolutely right, the key is to see if the economy can withstand, and China currently There is no double-digit hyperinflation as peripheral countries do. "So, we should seize the opportunity to adjust the energy pricing mechanism."
"Unless the international oil price drops to the level of 80 US dollars per barrel, our refined oil prices are still upside down." Zhu Baoliang told reporters that at current international oil prices to maintain the level of 110 US dollars per barrel, the domestic refined oil prices and international prices There is still a gap of about 2,000 yuan per ton. What is even more noteworthy is that experts interviewed generally believe that the decline in international oil prices is not a long-term trend, and rising prices are still the main theme of energy prices in the future. Therefore, it may not be too long for oil prices to leave China with a macro strategic adjustment.
The direction of China's energy price reform is to follow international market rules and change the long-distorted reality of energy prices. At present, it is in the transition from the government-controlled price system to the market price system, and the price has been rationalized to avoid energy waste and to make the overweight industrial structure green.
In fact, as early as 2005, China has formed a relatively comprehensive oil product pricing mechanism. The target is also set to be in line with international standards. However, this mechanism has not really operated in reality. The current price of refined oil is still in the market. Based on the unified pricing by the government.
“The reason why people feel that they have not taken a big step is because the 'one-step' solution does not meet our national conditions and can only adopt a 'gradual' approach; on the other hand, it is also because the reform of the energy price system is not only The problem is only in the energy sector, but it involves many areas of interest and requires the cooperation of a series of supporting measures. Therefore, it is more complex and difficult to implement. In an interview, an expert from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences told this reporter . Indeed, some experts have warned that inflationary pressure is still the enemy of economic development, and price changes, including the mechanism for the formation of refined oil prices, must be treated with caution.
At present, the dependence on China's crude oil imports has approached 50%. "If the reform of the refined oil pricing mechanism cannot be completed within the limited oil price drop channel and changes in the current high energy consumption and high pollution growth mode, when the international oil price rises again, the Chinese economy will We are facing even tougher tests. Now we have an opportunity. If we miss the problem, the problems we face will gradually increase, and we will encounter more and more problems. When we have to adjust, we will have to pay a higher price," the National Development and Reform Commission Energy Institute interviewed. The expert said.
Zhang Guobao, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the National Energy Administration, said recently that changes in domestic refined oil prices after the Olympic Games will be adjusted according to the overall economic development status and the energy situation at home and abroad. According to sources, the decision-makers have already clarified the reform ideas for refined oil prices. Some analysts believe that the government will be more proactive in price reforms, change the status of being forced by the market and companies to go step by step; reforms will also focus on fundamentals and completely rationalize institutional relations.
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