Jin Qiang, chairman of the China Coking Industry Association, spoke at the China Iron and Steel Raw Fuel Market Summit on September 20, highlighting that while some outdated small coke ovens have been phased out this year, the expansion of new coke oven capacity has outpaced the reduction of old facilities. As a result, the coking industry is still facing the risk of overcapacity in the coming years.
According to recent reports, from January to August, national coke output rose by 20.1% year-on-year, which is 3.8 percentage points higher than the growth rate of pig iron production. In July, although both coke and pig iron production growth slowed—16.9% for coke and 13.2% for pig iron—the gap remained at 3.7 percentage points, showing continued strong demand for coke.
Huang Jingan, an industry expert, noted that this year’s total crude steel output is expected to reach 480 million tons, representing a 14% increase from the previous year. This surge in steel production has brought significant market risks for the coking industry. He emphasized that the sector must align its production with market demand to avoid overexpansion and ensure sustainable operations.
Since the second half of last year, coke prices have seen multiple adjustments, leading to improved profitability for coking companies. However, several previously suspended coke oven projects have now resumed construction. Additionally, a number of iron and steel cooperative enterprises and large coal groups are expanding their industrial chains, further accelerating the development of new coke production capacity. These factors are increasing the pressure on the coking market and raising concerns about future oversupply.
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