Jin Qiang, chairman of the China Coking Industry Association, spoke at the China Iron and Steel Raw Fuel Market Summit on September 20, highlighting that while several outdated small coke ovens have been phased out this year, the expansion of new coke oven capacity has outpaced the reduction of old facilities. As a result, the coking industry is still facing potential oversupply risks in the coming years.
According to recent reports, from January to August, national coke production rose by 20.1% year-on-year, which is 3.8 percentage points higher than the growth rate of pig iron output. In July, although the increase in coke production dropped to 16.9%, it remained 3.7 percentage points higher than the 13.2% rise in pig iron output. This indicates that demand for coke is growing faster than that for pig iron, raising concerns about market balance.
Huang Jingan, an industry expert, noted that this year’s total crude steel output is expected to reach 480 million tons, representing a 14% increase from the previous year. This surge in steel production has made the risks in the coke market more evident. To address this, the coking industry needs to align its production with market demand, manage the rapid growth of coke output, and ensure balanced supply and sales.
Since the second half of last year, coke prices have seen multiple adjustments, leading to improved profitability for coking companies. However, some previously suspended coke oven projects have now resumed construction, and a number of iron and steel joint ventures and large coal groups are also expanding their industrial chains. These developments are accelerating the growth of new coke production capacity, thereby increasing market risks for the sector.
In light of these trends, industry leaders are urging greater caution and strategic planning to avoid overcapacity and maintain long-term stability in the coking market.
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